Calendar Event Details
AEROCENTER: Patrick Whelley
Affiliation: NASA GSFC Planetary Geodynamics Laboratory (Code 698)
Event Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Location: G133
Time: 11:00 AM
Explosive eruptions in Southeast Asia: their probability and potential ash dispersion
There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from eruptions of volcanic explosivity index 3 (VEI 3) and smaller pose mostly local hazards while eruptions of VEI ≥ 4 could disrupt trade, travel, and daily life in large parts of the region. Because the eruptive histories of most volcanoes in Southeast Asia are poorly constrained, volcanoes with similar morphologies are placed in classes and assumed to have had similar eruption histories. Eruption histories of well-studied examples of each morphologic class serve as proxy histories for understudied volcanoes in the class. From known and proxy eruptive histories, the decadal probabilities of VEI 4-8 eruptions in Southeast Asia are estimated to be nearly 1.0, ~0.6, ~0.15, ~0.012, and ~0.001, respectively. Ash dispersion is modeled using HYSPLIT, hypothetical eruption scenarios and reanalysis weather observations. More than 1000 model runs suggest that regional East to West winds would likely dominate dispersion in the event of a large volcanic eruption in Southeast Asia.
Posted or updated: Wednesday, April 15, 2015
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