Calendar Event Details
AEROCENTER: Valentina Aquila
Affiliation: NASA GSFC/Johns Hopkins University
Event Date: Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Location: G133
Time: 11:00 AM
Model guidance for deployment of observational resources following a major volcanic eruption
The 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines increased the stratospheric aerosol burden by orders of magnitude and perturbed the global Earth system by modifying the atmosphere’s radiation balance, perturbing tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures, increasing stratospheric water vapor concentration, changing the chemical balance of the stratosphere, enhancing ozone depletion, and modifying the dynamics of the stratosphere. We know from the smaller El Chichón eruption in Mexico in 1982 that the climate response to large eruptions is not simply proportional to the amount of sulfur emitted: while Mt. Pinatubo injected more than twice as much sulfate aerosol as El Chichón, it produced a much smaller tropical stratospheric warming. The climate response to a major volcanic eruption depends thus on a number of factors, including the amount of material released (including sulfur, water, and halogen compounds), the altitude of injection, the latitude, and season. Characterizing important parameters following an eruption and monitoring the subsequent volcanic plume evolution will be important activities for the international research community in the weeks- to-months-to-years following a major eruption. In order to provide NASA advance guidance to support its deployment of airborne and in situ resources following a major eruption, we have performed a series of simulations with two Earth system models—the NASA GSFC Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the GISS ModelE—in which we explore the evolution of the volcanic plume resulting from a Pinatubo-magnitude eruption. In particular, we explore the evolution of the resulting aerosol plume, including its amount, altitude, lifetime, and particle size distribution, as well as recovery of the perturbed atmosphere to pre-eruption conditions. Our suite of simulations investigates both the month and latitude of the eruption as important factors in determining the plume evolution. We use two Earth system models in our study so that points of commonality and difference in the resulting simulations can suggest especially where measurement needs lie to constrain models. In this paper we report on the main results of our study thus far and suggest notional deployment strategies for observational resources following a major volcanic eruption
Posted or updated: Wednesday, November 30, 2016
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